Forecast as methodology for equipments reliability increase

Abstract

The assessment of certain equipment reliability in the stage of its design has a forecast character. The factors with influence onto this quality feature are numerous. The impact of each among them is hard to be precisely determined – sometimes unpredictable things do happen. A methodology dedicated to forecast the machine-tools safe functioning indicators is presented in this paper. It lays on three methods already proved in prospective analysis practice: the morphological method, the extrapolation method, and the statistic method.